Financing and partnerships
$162 Billion in Multifamily Debt Is Due: Why I'm Buying Now
162B of multifamily debt is maturing in 2026. Here's what it means for pricing, why this isn't 2008, and the four steps I use to buy in this market.
A lot of deals got done in 2020 and 2021. Here in 2026, that debt is due. The extensions are being called. The five-year notes are maturing. All in, there is $162 billion of multifamily debt coming due this year: up about 52% from last year.
That single number is changing how I'm operating in 2026 compared to 2025, and it should change how you operate too. So let's talk about what it actually means for pricing, for the market, and for you.
This is not 2008
I've seen the panic content everywhere. The bubble. The crash is coming. Everything's going to end.
No, it isn't. This is not 2008. It's not even close.
What is true is that more individual deals are failing. We saw Brandon Turner's Houston deal go down, and unfortunately he likely has more in the hopper that will cost investors capital. A lot of syndicated deals came out of the era where the pitch was "buy things zero dollars down with no experience," and plenty of people took that pitch. Those are the deals coming due right now.
Related reading: What Brandon Turner's Houston Deal Going to Zero Teaches Investors
That's very different from a systemic collapse. We're not seeing major market shifts or big groups getting completely wiped out. We're seeing a handful of failed deals and a lot more pricing pressure: in favor of buyers.
What I'm actually seeing in the market
In one week I offered on three separate deals for less than the owners owe on the property.
The debt on those is coming due in two, three, five months, and people are a little panicked. What I'm watching from the bigger shops is disciplined triage: they're trimming portfolios and cutting losses on the weaker assets to protect their bigger deals. They're making shifts, not imploding.
I've written offers in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Abilene, Waco, and Stephenville, and I should be going under contract on two more. I've already closed on $12.5 million of multifamily this year, almost all of it from people adjusting their portfolios to the changing market.
This is the fun part of the cycle. Operators who have strung their deals along as long as possible are finally out of options, so they're trading. What I'm buying today ranges from about 10% off what's owed up to 30%, and that's off the loan balance, not off what they originally paid for it.
There are still plenty of normal deals on the market too. Regular operations haven't gone anywhere, and I'm buying those as well. But I have never seen this much opportunity in my career. I started in 2016 with a live-in flip condo in Renton. I did a lot of buying in 2020, got into duplexes, graduated to a 38-unit, and scaled to roughly 600 units over the last five years. Nothing in that stretch looks like this.
I'm writing offers that are, frankly, offensively low. Many of them are getting accepted.
The problem of too many good deals
This has created a problem I did not expect to have: I'm going to have to start saying no to genuinely good deals.
It's an ethical issue. I can't in good faith raise money for a fantastic deal while I'm already under contract on an even better one. How do you look an investor in the eye and say, "I have an amazing return for you" when you're simultaneously raising for another deal with better returns for someone else? I can't do it.
So we're passing on deals I would have bought in any other year, purely because of the volume of opportunity in front of us right now.
The most boring market in years
Here's what I think most people are missing, and it's not the scary part.
There has been a good deal of building and some oversupply, especially in Texas. Rents nationwide aren't up much: they're fairly flat. Interest rates haven't moved notably in a long time; they've inched down from the spike a few years back, but nothing dramatic. Depending on the debt product and the market, we're sitting somewhere in the high fives to low sevens. Real estate values are fairly average when you look at cap rates over time.
Put those variables together and you get the most boring market we've seen in a long time. Moderate rates, average values, flat rents, not much change. A lot of sellers, not nearly as many buyers.
If you're watching this wondering why anyone would make a video about how boring real estate is, here's why: you want your money to be boring. You want the most predictable return. You want the safest underwriting. A mostly flat market with the fewest buyers and the most sellers you'll see in a given year is exactly the environment to be buying in.
And I'll say it plainly: if there was ever a time in history to get into a deal, especially if you know how to use a little creativity, it's right now. This has been my favorite year operating in my entire existence.
I'm seeing it across our mentorship program too. More offers from mentees are getting accepted, and negotiations are more aggressive. It's become almost the default play: negotiate a great deal, then take another 10% off it and offer that. It gets accepted more often than I've ever seen. These aren't lowball offers: they're offers notably lower than we'd have attempted in past years. That means higher margin, better investor returns, and easier capital raises.
Real estate is not sexy in the news right now, and I am here for it. By the time real estate gets sexy again, it's because everyone already made a lot of the money. You want to be on the front end of that wave.
About the crash callers
Every single year, the Crash Bros launch their series of videos about why everything is going to fail. Grant Cardone has done it multiple times, year after year. Even Ken McElroy, who I genuinely like and respect, calls more crashes than actually happen.
Look at the fundamentals instead. All this maturing debt means better pricing and more pain for existing owners. It doesn't mean the sector breaks. If you're trying to time the bottom, everything I can see says we're hovering right around it. We may pull back a bit more through the year, but for buyers, this is probably the best window we'll see for quite a while.
Four steps to buy real estate this year
Here are four steps you can take, regardless of how much money you have. Do them in this order and you will end up with more real estate. The order matters more than anything else on this list.
- Analyze the deal. This is the most important skill whether you're an active or a passive investor. If Brandon Turner's investors (or the investors in any of these failed syndications) had known how to analyze a deal, they wouldn't have put money in. That deal was under a four cap in Houston. Assuming it would improve from there was insane. It wasn't a good deal when he negotiated it, so it failed. That's how it works.
- Talk to brokers about deals that are actually on market. On-market deals are starting to look pretty good again. Have the conversations and submit the offers. The cheat code: a call or two a day on listed deals until you get traction with a broker or owner, and one offer a week where you've had an honest conversation and have a reasonable chance of acceptance. Do that and you should be under contract within a few months.
- Line up the debt product. This is the easy part. Conventional financing, local banks and credit unions, or creative structures, and if you want the creative side, that's most of what we cover on this channel.
- Raise the equity last. Once you have the deal, the package, the debt lined up, and math that shows exactly how it makes money, finding people in your market who also want to make money is straightforward. This should be the easiest step, but only if the first three are already done.
Analysis, deal, debt, equity. In that order.
Key takeaways
- $162 billion of multifamily debt matures in 2026, up about 52% from last year. That's pricing pressure, not a 2008-style collapse.
- Distressed sellers are trading at roughly 10% to 30% below what they owe on the loan, and big operators are trimming weak assets to protect strong ones.
- I've closed $12.5 million this year and written offers across Austin, Houston, Dallas, Abilene, Waco and Stephenville, and I'm now turning down good deals because better ones are already under contract.
- Moderate rates, flat rents, average values, more sellers than buyers: boring is exactly what you want your money to be.
- The "negotiate hard, then take another 10% off" offer is getting accepted more than I've ever seen.
- Underwriting is the non-negotiable skill. A sub-four cap in Houston was a bad deal on day one, and no amount of operating skill fixed it.
Watch the full episode for the complete market breakdown and the reasoning behind each of the four steps. You can download our free deal calculator through our free Skool community, grab the free course on getting started in multifamily at multifamilystrategy.com/get-free-training, and find our course and mentorship programs at multifamilystrategy.com. The Book on Creative Real Estate, which walks through the actual plays I've used to buy with and without my own money, is on Amazon.
Read the episode transcript
0:00 There were a lot of deals in 2020 and 0:02 2021 and here in 2026 that debt is due. 0:05 The extensions are being called due. The 0:07 5-year debt is now due. In fact, there 0:08 is 162 billion of multif family debt up 0:13 about 52% from last year. That is coming 0:15 due, which reflects on the strategies 0:18 that I'm using this year that are 0:19 different than last year. So, dive on 0:21 in. If you want to know what this means 0:23 for real estate, what this means for 0:24 pricing, and more importantly, what this 0:25 means to you, we share it all in this 0:27 episode. So, first let's open this up. 0:29 Uh, I've seen this all over online. The 0:31 bubble, the all the all the YouTubers 0:33 are out here. Oh, the crash is coming. 0:35 Everything's going to end. Uh, no, it's 0:36 not. This is not 2008. This is not even 0:38 close. Uh, there are, however, more 0:40 deals that you're seeing crashing. We 0:41 saw Brandon Turner's Houston deal crash. 0:43 He probably has some more in the hopper 0:44 there for losing investor capital, 0:46 unfortunately. But, there's a lot of 0:48 these syndicated deals in the prime 0:50 marketing of, hey, buy things zero 0:52 dollars down with no experience. A lot 0:54 of people did that. Uh so we're going to 0:56 see that a lot of that coming due right 0:58 now. The opportunity that I am seeing I 1:00 have offered this week alone on three 1:03 deals for less than they owe on the 1:05 property. Debt is coming due for these 1:07 deals in two three five months and 1:10 people are a little bit panicked. What 1:12 I'm seeing from the bigger shops, so 1:14 bigger investors as they're trimming the 1:15 portfolio and they're cutting their 1:16 losses in favor of their bigger deals. 1:18 So they're making shifts. So is 1:19 everything going to implode? No. But oh 1:21 my gosh, the opportunities are awesome 1:23 this year. I've offered in Austin, in 1:25 Houston, in Dallas, in Abalene, in Waco, 1:27 in in Stevenville. In fact, I should be 1:29 going under contract for two more deals. 1:31 So, stay tuned. We're doing a lot of 1:32 buying. And I have already closed on 1:34 12.5 million dollars of multif family 1:36 real estate from people who are 1:38 adjusting their portfolios with the 1:40 changing market. So, we're at the fun 1:42 part right now where when the debt's 1:43 coming due, the operators that have 1:45 strung along their deals as long as they 1:46 can, they're finally out of options. So, 1:49 they're trading a lot of the deals that 1:50 I'm buying. I am buying today for 10% 1:53 off what they owe. Not if they bought it 1:55 for, for what they owe, up to 30% of 1:58 what they owe. Now, there are still some 2:00 good deals and normal deals on the 2:01 market. The normal operations are still 2:03 in play, buying plenty of those as well. 2:05 But, I'm seeing more opportunity this 2:06 year than I have my entire investing 2:09 career. I started in 2016 2:12 with a live-inflip condo in Renton. In 2:14 2020, I did a lot of my buying, getting 2:16 into the duplexes and then graduating to 2:18 where I'm at now, which is the, you 2:20 know, I bought a 38 unit and then scale 2:21 up to 600 units in the last five years. 2:23 I have never seen as much opportunity as 2:26 I've seen right now. I'm writing offers. 2:28 Some of these offers are offensively low 2:30 and many of them are getting accepted. 2:32 I'm going to run into a new problem of 2:34 we're going to have too many deals and 2:35 I'm going to have to start saying no to 2:37 truly good deals because of an ethical 2:38 issue I'm running into. I cannot in good 2:41 faith raise money for a fantastic deal 2:43 when I'm already under contract for an 2:45 even better deal because how do you 2:46 explain to an investor, hey, I have an 2:48 amazing return for you. However, I'm 2:49 giving even better return to other 2:51 people and I'm actively raising for that 2:52 deal, too. I can't do it. So, we're 2:54 actually having to say no to deals that 2:56 I would have bought in any other year 2:58 because of the amount of opportunity 2:59 that we are seeing right now in the 3:01 market. There's one other thing that I 3:03 think people are missing right now, 3:04 especially Texas, but there's been a 3:06 good deal of building an overupp. If 3:08 you've noticed, nationwide, rents aren't 3:11 up by very much. They're fairly flat. 3:12 Also, you may have noticed interest 3:14 rates haven't changed notably in a long 3:16 time. Like, sure, they've inched down 3:18 from their big spike several years ago, 3:20 but if you're looking at the market 3:22 right now, it's the most boring market 3:23 we've seen in a long time. Yes, there 3:25 are more deals available right now. 3:27 Obviously, you definitely have an 3:28 advantage if you are buying in this 3:30 market. But if you look at your 3:32 variables, we have very moderate 3:33 interest rates. You know, we're sitting 3:35 in the high fives to low sevens 3:37 depending on what debt product you're 3:38 looking at and what market you're 3:39 looking at. Real estate values are 3:40 fairly average. If you're looking over 3:42 time at cap rates, you have this boring 3:44 market where we're kind of in the middle 3:45 of everything. It's a fairly stagnant 3:47 market. There's not a whole lot of 3:49 change. There are a lot of sellers, not 3:52 as many buyers. If there was ever a time 3:55 in history to get into a deal, I would 3:57 say it is right now. Especially if you 3:59 know how to use a little bit of 4:00 creativity, but this has been my 4:01 favorite year operating in my entire 4:03 existence. I have not had to say no to 4:05 so many good deals. And I'm watching, 4:07 you know, I run multif family strategy. 4:08 As you guys know, we have a mentorship 4:10 program. I'm seeing more offers get 4:12 accepted from mentees and more 4:14 aggressive negotiations. It's almost a 4:16 default now. Negotiate a great deal and 4:19 then take 10% off it and offer that. and 4:21 it gets accepted more than I've ever 4:22 seen it get accepted. So, I'm seeing not 4:24 low ball offers, but I'm seeing offers 4:26 that are notably lower than we would 4:28 have attempted in past years getting 4:30 accepted, which means higher margin, 4:31 better investor returns, easier capital 4:33 raises. But right now, real estate is 4:35 not considered sexy in the news. And I 4:37 am here for it. I think this is the best 4:39 time to start playing because by the 4:41 time real estate gets sexy, it's because 4:43 everyone already made a lot of the 4:45 money. You want to be on the front end 4:47 of that wave. I'm looking at what this 4:49 means right now with all this debt 4:51 coming due. It just means that there's 4:52 better pricing available. There's more 4:54 pain in the market, but we're not seeing 4:56 these major market shifts or big groups 4:59 get completely wiped out. We're seeing a 5:01 few failed deals and we're seeing more 5:03 pricing pressure for you as the buyer. 5:05 So, if you're buying, I think this is 5:07 probably the best time we're going to 5:08 see in the next quite a bit. Maybe we 5:10 pull back a little bit more throughout 5:12 this year, but if you're looking for 5:13 like, hey, I'm trying to time the market 5:14 and buy at the bottom. We're probably 5:17 hovering right around there from all the 5:19 fundamentals I could see. And I know 5:20 there's the Crash Bros out there who 5:22 every single year launched their series 5:24 of videos on why everything's going to 5:26 fail. I've seen Grant Cardone do this 5:27 multiple times every single year. Even 5:29 Ken Maroy, who I really, really like and 5:32 respect. Uh he calls more crashes than 5:33 actually happen. If I'm looking at the 5:35 market right now, real estate is really 5:38 boring. And if you're watching this 5:40 episode being like, why am I watching an 5:42 episode on how boring real estate is? 5:44 You want your money to be boring, 5:45 people. I promise you, if you're 5:47 listening to this, you want the most 5:49 predictable return. You want the safest 5:50 underwriting, a mostly flat market right 5:54 now. This is the least buyers and the 5:57 most sellers you're probably going to 5:58 see in every given any given year. So, 6:01 I'm going to leave you with four steps 6:02 that you can personally take to buy a 6:04 ton of real estate this year, regardless 6:06 of how much money you have. Uh, do these 6:07 things in order. You will end up with 6:09 more real estate. I absolutely promise 6:10 you. Number one, you need to know how to 6:12 analyze a deal. If Brandon Turner's 6:14 investors or any of these failed 6:15 syndications, if they knew how to 6:17 analyze a deal, they wouldn't have 6:18 invested in his deal because it was like 6:21 less than a four cap in Houston. 6:23 Assuming that that was going to do 6:25 better was insane. It wasn't a good deal 6:27 when he negotiated it. So, the deal 6:28 failed. That's how it works. So, you 6:30 need to know underwrite whether you are 6:31 an active investor or passive investor. 6:34 That is the most important thing. Uh you 6:35 can download a free calculator below. 6:36 You can also get a link to my book here 6:38 which shows you all sorts of plays you 6:39 can do to buy real estate with or 6:41 without any of your own money. in fact, 6:43 actual plays that I've used. You can 6:44 check that out on Amazon, the book on 6:46 creative real estate. And then you go to 6:48 our school community, skol for the 6:50 calculator. You guys can check that out 6:51 there, too. But you need to know how to 6:52 analyze a deal first because if you know 6:54 the math and you're confident in your 6:56 numbers, you're going to start writing 6:57 offers. And if you're going to raise 6:59 capital, you can start presenting on why 7:01 it's a good deal to other people. It's 7:02 very important to get. Number two, you 7:04 need to actually talk to brokers about 7:05 the deals that are on market. Right now, 7:07 the deals on market are actually 7:09 starting to look pretty darn good. 7:10 There's a lot of opportunity out there, 7:12 which means you need to be having 7:13 conversations around them and actually 7:14 submitting those offers. If you want a 7:16 cheat code, have enough conversations in 7:18 the week, so we're talking like a call 7:20 or two a day with listed deals until you 7:23 get some traction with a broker or an 7:25 owner. You should be writing one offer a 7:28 week where you've actually had an honest 7:29 conversation and a reasonable chance of 7:31 getting accepted. You do this, you 7:32 should be under contract within the next 7:33 few months. Next, you're going to 7:35 actually line up the debt product, which 7:36 is easy to do. You're going to either do 7:37 conventionals. You're going to reach out 7:38 to local banks and credit unions or 7:40 you're going to get creative in which 7:41 case you probably want to snag this book 7:43 or watch more videos on this channel 7:45 because we talk a lot about the 7:46 creative. And then lastly, once all of 7:48 those are in place, if you need more 7:50 money, now you have a deal, you have a 7:52 package, you have the debt product set 7:53 up, you have a deal and math that says 7:55 how it's going to make money. It's very 7:57 easy to find other people in your market 7:59 who also want to make money. So that 8:00 should be the easiest part, but only if 8:02 you keep those four steps in the correct 8:04 order. So, analysis, deal, debt, equity, 8:08 do those four steps in order. You'll buy 8:10 more real estate this year than you have 8:11 in any other year. See you on the next 8:12 episode.
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